1st year sales projection

[jlevac]

I'm currently finishing up on a business plan for a distillery in Ontario and there aren't a lot of distilleries that I can call and share info with. We're going with 100 gal still (maybe 125) and we're trying to figure out sale projection for the first few years. I know the first year has very little production because we will mainly be waiting for permits and so on, but i figure we'll have 6 months of production.

If we produce 4 days a week on a 100 gal still, i figured we would be able to produce about 450 bottles/week. For 6 months, that's roughly just under 11000 bottles or 900 cases. Is that too much production for a first year in a market of roughly 1 million people craving for local craft product where the craft brew boom has taken off like crazy over the last 3 years?

Any help would be appreciated for projections.

thanks

Jean

[jlevac]

I forgot that we are allowed in-store sale.

[Rickdiculous]

Jean,

Projections are simply that, an educated guess based on what you have for equipment, capital and time. We all want to have one hundred percent sell through and that may or may not happen in your neck of the woods, depending on your cash on hand to make it, market it, and get into the hands of the consumer.

That said, 900 cases sounds fairly reasonable. I am guessing these are projections which will be used to acquire financing. What you need there is a reasonable projection, (which you have) and a plan for doing the above mentioned. So if you believe you can reasonably make 900 cases, come up with a best guess plan for selling it and if you are believable, you will probably get what you are after.

900 cases is less than 25 Barrels of 2yr old Whiskey at 60 ABV. I know distilleries producing one or two barrels a week on a still the size your suggesting. So if you are just looking for a production estimate your not far off. Maybe a bit optimistic for a start up. If you are going for Gin or Vodka made from NGS you should make that easy.

As for a market of 1 million, there are people pushing more than that by a long shot in markets of 50,000 or less. This greatly depends on you area, but if it is hot and you see a niche to fill, You are on the right track.

Rick

[jlevac]

Thanks RIck!

[Shindig]

This is a great topic!! I wish I had info to share but I am also trying to figure out what is reasonable for the first few years in business.

[Jedd Haas]

I'm not very familiar with the Canadian market, but if you can sell 900 cases in your first 6 months that would be pretty impressive. Will this be entirely through your onsite sales, or do you also plan on distribution? Does Canada allow self-distribution, or do you already have a distributor lined up and have a purchase order from them for multiple pallets? Do you have a background in sales and marketing, or someone skilled in that area as part of your team?

[Spazsquatch]

I forgot that we are allowed in-store sale.

Are you running a 5000L stripping still to meet the retail requirement or did you find a different approach?

[jlevac]

I'm not very familiar with the Canadian market, but if you can sell 900 cases in your first 6 months that would be pretty impressive. Will this be entirely through your onsite sales, or do you also plan on distribution? Does Canada allow self-distribution, or do you already have a distributor lined up and have a purchase order from them for multiple pallets? Do you have a background in sales and marketing, or someone skilled in that area as part of your team?

In Ontario, we don't self distribute. Everything is done by the province.