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Sales forecasts - Verifying NC Quantity Reports


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Hi everyone.

We're in the midst of finalizing some of the final preparations for our distillery prior to making purchases and moving forward with our business plans. We've got 12-month cash flows, production plans, limited debt, adequate financing and several years' worth of P&L projections along with conservative budgeting for Murphy's law.

However, I just received a sales report from the NC ABC (the state where we will most likely initiate sales of our first product line), which I'm still trying to interpret. The report includes quantities of spirits sole over a 12-month period. The person at the ABC who provided it said the report is quantities of bottles, but I have a hard time believing it's bottles and not 9L cases, as some of the numbers for businesses I know sell only in NC are quite low (i.e., low single digits). If some businesses have only one product and they are selling only one bottle per month in the state, I don't see how they could remain in business.

With that in mind, we're planning for first year sales of around 1,000 to 1,200 9L cases. Is this figure a reasonable expectation, particularly if we're focused on distribution to a control state with plans for rapidly expanding to other states?

We have calls in to clarify this report, but are concerned about the reliability of the information. Does it seem feasible for big producers in the state to be selling only about 400 bottles (33 cases) of product on a monthly basis?

We're not yet at the point of no return. I'm trying to verify our thesis before we get to that point.

Thanks for your input.

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To much math, to much marking, not enough cash, full production in one year, 1000 cases 1st year. Who is going to be your broker to push that much of a new product in the first year. Where are you building the distillery. Contact me if you like.

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I would have given my left nut for 1000 cases year in year three, let alone year one. Damn... you've got to have a major marketing machine. What will you be making? Gin, Vodka, or bottled GNS?

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Thanks, guys. We're considering first year to be the calendar year once we have a product on the market. We are already most of the way through year one when considering business establishment, so know what you mean. If you count that period, our first year sales were zero, and year 2 sales will be in the same vein.

John, noticed you said too much math and too much marketing. Just hoping you might be able to clarify what you meant there.

Thanks again for your input.

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Thanks, guys. We're considering first year to be the calendar year once we have a product on the market. We are already most of the way through year one when considering business establishment, so know what you mean. If you count that period, our first year sales were zero, and year 2 sales will be in the same vein.

John, noticed you said too much math and too much marketing. Just hoping you might be able to clarify what you meant there.

Thanks again for your input.

I am done doing the bean counting as most of my projections have been off or out of my control waiting on others. Marking research is good but until you have a product on the self or in hand everyone you see will say they will buy it but getting them to the ABC store is something else.

I am not letting any of these problems slow me down. Keep on keeping on.

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