lboe Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Sales of liquor slow in 2008 The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States says it is not going to give an industry forecast for 2009 because the recession makes future spending too hard to predict. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/30/news/econo...sion=2009013006 I'm sure many of you have seen this article. Just wondering how this is playing out on the micro distillery side and what people are doing to counteract any effects. Lisa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohninWV Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Sales of liquor slow in 2008The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States says it is not going to give an industry forecast for 2009 because the recession makes future spending too hard to predict. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/30/news/econo...sion=2009013006 I'm sure many of you have seen this article. Just wondering how this is playing out on the micro distillery side and what people are doing to counteract any effects. Lisa Thanks for the link. While I don't believe there are any recession-proof businesses out there, I'll take the "only rose x%" quotes all day long over what almost every other industry in the world is seeing...and that's big losses, not gains. I'm sure that won't happen for 2009, but who knows. It's surely something to keep in mind during this economy...I'm not sure how it's going to change my plans at this time. I'm looking forward to seeing others comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odyssey Spirits Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 During a recession is one of the best times to start a new business of any kind. In fact some of the largest companies that we know of today all got their start during a recession or downturn in the economy: Microsoft, Google, "When times are bad for the economy, it can be a great time to start a business. In fact, 16 of the 30 companies that make up the Dow industrial average were started during a recession or depression. These include Procter & Gamble, Disney, Alcoa, McDonald's, General Electric and Johnson & Johnson." "Here are just a few of the companies started in those awful years of the early 1970's: Supercuts, Chilis, Cablevision, Industrial Light & Magic, Famous Amos cookies, Oakley and, oh, yes, a small company called Microsoft." "The year 1982 didn't look like such a great time to launch a company: The U.S. was in the midst of a recession and unemployment was at its highest since World War II. Seems the founders of Sun Microsystems, Compaq Computer, Adobe Systems, Silicon Graphics, and Lotus Development disagreed. All those companies started up that year--and prospered." Here are a few articles about this trend (& there are hundreds more if you search Google): http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusines...-business_N.htm http://www.insidecrm.com/features/business...d-slump-111108/ http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb_arc...17802/index.htm The majority of the aforementioned companies were all small businesses when they started & the majority of them are still in business and doing quite well. Of course in a recession or depression ~ only the good ideas will survive. Do you have a good idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sensei Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Not to be a party pooper, but all of those companies in 1982 were all new wave companies who came out just at the right time. Making alcohol is a very old industry and may not be analagous. Just my thoughts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odyssey Spirits Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Not to be a party pooper, but all of those companies in 1982 were all new wave companies who came out just at the right time. Making alcohol is a very old industry and may not be analagous. Just my thoughts...... sensai ~ you made my point exactly. I guess it depends on whether a given micro-distillery decides to be part of the old industry or focuses on being a new wave company. Personally our company's focus is to be part of a new wave in distilling. P.S. Of course I haven't said it won't be difficult to start such a company during a recession, however apart from the bank issues it's my opinion that the majority of this downturn is purely the result of misplaced fear. Perhaps some success in a few areas will lift people's spirits & boost their desire for consuming them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sensei Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 P.S. Of course I haven't said it won't be difficult to start such a company during a recession, however apart from the bank issues it's my opinion that the majority of this downturn is purely the result of misplaced fear. This is something that I'd like to see reported on a hell of a lot more. Is the current state of the economy truly a result of the economy or is it a result of a weak economy AND widespread fear that is driving it deeper than it really is/should be? Just because some wolves take down 2-3 Bison doesn't mean that the rest of the herd need run off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Forester Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Or is the whole thing media induced after everyone had been told for years and years that the economy is shot? The media was reporting we were in a recession for quarter after quarter when there was actual growth in each of those quarters. It's like teens with image problems. There parents and friends tell them they are fat and ugly when they are 2-3 pounds overweight because they aren't so skinny that their ribs show. Then they start to believe it and boom, another kid with a body image problem who is overweight, underweight, bulimic, anorexic, etc. If you tell people long enough and loud enough that there is a problem, (or isn't one) they will believe you. This is something that I'd like to see reported on a hell of a lot more. Is the current state of the economy truly a result of the economy or is it a result of a weak economy AND widespread fear that is driving it deeper than it really is/should be? Just because some wolves take down 2-3 Bison doesn't mean that the rest of the herd need run off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Liberty Bar - Seattle Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Not to be a party pooper, but all of those companies in 1982 were all new wave companies who came out just at the right time. Making alcohol is a very old industry and may not be analagous. Just my thoughts...... Sensai - you're aptly named. I don't know if I agree that a downturn is a good time. I mean, define "good". Is it "good" that a solid segment of the population - your purchaser - will not be purchasing as much? Relating that to some big companies were formed and capitalized at a time when others were not really able to be so well capitalized has little relation to what is going on here in the context to suggesting that now is in any way any better of a time than when the economy is doing well. I mean, sure - if someone has millions and millions of dollars, they can then use that money to bully smaller products off the market or at least off the shelf... Now is a tough time, and as we all know, spirits hold better than most other products in a down-turn, but I feel sorry for the undercapitalized as they emerge. It would be sad to have a great product but no money to tell anyone about it, 'eh? I remember here in Seattle there was a small brewery that made outstanding beer, but they just could not afford to SELL their beer. sensai ~ you made my point exactly.I guess it depends on whether a given micro-distillery decides to be part of the old industry or focuses on being a new wave company. Personally our company's focus is to be part of a new wave in distilling. Jeffery, not to get into a debate here (wait, that's not such a bad thing), I don't know if that was your point. You stated, "Of course in a recession or depression ~ only the good ideas will survive. Do you have a good idea?" Respectfully, that's not true at all. One can have the greatest idea coupled with the best product in the world, but if you can't afford to TELL the world about your great ideas and if the operator is not a good operator...? No bueno. On the other side, one can have a bad idea and a terrible product but have the ability to promote your bad ideas/products? I'd give money to the bad ideas with a chance for promotion before the great idea with no ability to promote or no proven experience with promotion. I wish us all luck - and I say that as someone who simply owns a bar that has yet to start their distillery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odyssey Spirits Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 One can have the greatest idea coupled with the best product in the world, but if you can't afford to TELL the world about your great ideas and if the operator is not a good operator...? No bueno. On the other side, one can have a bad idea and a terrible product but have the ability to promote your bad ideas/products? I'd give money to the bad ideas with a chance for promotion before the great idea with no ability to promote or no proven experience with promotion. I'm not in favor of promoting bad products. I'd rather create a premium product AND have the ability to promote it, which is why our company will only produce products that we know in advance we'll be able to promote effectively once produced. It's unfortunate so many new distillers overlook the marketing side of our business. People jump into this industry with the intent of creating artisan products, which is a great goal, however as Andrew has pointed out it's not enough ~ we must market and sell it to our customers, over the long term. The uncomfortable truth is that marketing really needs to be one of the first aspects we micro/craft distillers should be thinking about - especially in this down period. We are competing with the deep-pocket brand portfolio companies for their entrenched market share and they are going to be less than willing to yield their space for our products, especially when consumer spend is down. Our end users are also hunkering down in their homes, afraid to leave the house, becoming ever more tight with spending money ~ which in our industry this has translated to higher than average liquor store sales, though lower than normal restaurant and bar sales of liquor. Going back to what I said about having the best idea: I'd like to add that it will be the distilleries with good ideas AND the most creative ways to bring them to market that will survive. I sincerely wish many of us make it through the downturn, so our industry may thrive when these challenging times are behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph at Tuthilltown Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Recesssion-reschmession. Everyone is taking the hit in one way or another. Economic downturns are opportunities for those who do not lose their heads and keep their eyes open. There's no question of a fall off in some sales venues, but there are upturns in others. There is no "will the industry survive?" Of course it will. Who will be left standing is another question altogether. Who will be gobbled up, or fail? For our part the key is innovation and NOT doing anything the same ole' "traditional" way making the same ole' "traditional" alcoholic beverages. Don't be timid, be smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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