johnr41a

If you are adding sugar to vodka already at 80 proof, you cannot use the obscuration method. Adding sugar to 80 proof vodka brings the proof down below 80, obviously, and the obscuration method can only be used for proof ranges 80 - 100. Also, above 80 proof you can only use an obscuration up to 2.0 proof above apparent proof. Beyond that you will have to perform a laboratory distillation of a sample with apparatus described in the second link in the post above.

I would worry most about year 1. There really is no way a start up can forecast future years--it will be at best an educated guess. Heck, you most likely won't be right about year one. I would talk to distributors in your intended market(s) and see if they can give you an idea of the total volume your particular spirit category does in those markets. Also ask if they have any info on the volume of individual products. The bigger distributors subscribe to industry trade publications that collect and track this info. (You can buy them, but they are really expensive.) Then pick a few products in your intended price range and compare volumes. Assume you will be lower, probably much lower since you aren't established.

If you can't get this info, then talk to the biggest retailers in your markets. Ask them for sales info on particular products. Then extrapolate to your entire market. For example, if liquor store chain sells 100 cases of X product each year and it's a 30 store chain, then you can estimate that X product sells on average about 3 cases per store. If there are 200 stores in your market, then that's 600 cases. You should be able to get a list of potential customers from your states alcoholic beverage commission.

These methods will give you a theoretical maximum, most likely your sales will be far less, especially at first.

Also, remember that price means a lot. If you are pricing your product at $30, comparing yourself to a $20 dollar product will be useless. Yes, I know we all think our products are worth every penny, but I've generally found that people shop price point. If you assume that all the $20 shoppers will flock to your product at $30 because it is so much better, then you will be in for a disappointment.

There is also no substitute for getting out into the market and seeing what is on the shelves of your potential customers. Look for products near your price point and of similar type. Are they case stacked or do the stores carry just a few bottles. If they carry just a few bottles, then most likely they are selling just a few bottles each month (dust on the bottle? probably just a few each year).

Don't expect everyone to carry you. Large national chains usually are adverse to picking up new products. In my state of Indiana, liquor stores carry variety and are apt to pick up new products, grocery stores have limited selection and will only carry you after you've become popular. This is usually the case in most (non control) states. On premise sales aren't easy either. The big guys spend a lot of promo money to maintain their edge and exclusivity in the clubs and bars.

Great info. Especially about setting your price point.