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Projecting production outputs


Bbiehl

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Hello all,

I'm new to this site and to the distilling business overall. My partner and I are in the process of putting together our business plan and one of the biggest struggles we're having is projecting production outputs (i.e. how much product can/should we make) years 1-3. I would greatly appreciate learning how anyone else did this. Thanks in advance!

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Hello all,

I'm new to this site and to the distilling business overall. My partner and I are in the process of putting together our business plan and one of the biggest struggles we're having is projecting production outputs (i.e. how much product can/should we make) years 1-3. I would greatly appreciate learning how anyone else did this. Thanks in advance!

Not going to try to give an answer, but there are others here who can certainly do that.

But, you probably need to give a little more info.

-How large of a still?

-How many gallons of mash/wash a month you plan on running?

In theory, a 25gal still could be run 24hrs a day, so that's going to be a large factor as opposed to running a 100gal. unit.

What's your projected ROI timeline?

Gotta know what your monthly expenses are going to be. I know of a couple of artisans who don't expect returns for the first 3 years. Another who solidly plans on payoff in 12 months. That dictates the minimum production levels.

So, if you provide a bit more info I'm sure some here can get you on track.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hello all,

I'm new to this site and to the distilling business overall. My partner and I are in the process of putting together our business plan and one of the biggest struggles we're having is projecting production outputs (i.e. how much product can/should we make) years 1-3. I would greatly appreciate learning how anyone else did this. Thanks in advance!

I have to agree with Porter, you need more information to make accurate projections. What is the turn around on your product? Vodka is ready to sell as soon as it is bottled, however a straight whiskey has a minimum of 2 years in barrels before you get paid. What is your beginning production schedule? Your utilities? Your manpower? Materials? All of these things factor in. I like to think of a distillery as a hamburger stand in which you don't get paid for your "happy meal" for 2 years. Lights, gas, grain, salary, repairs, rent.... all deferred until you sell that bottle. I know it sounds scary, and it should be, but it can pay off, you just need to plan properly. Good luck!

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