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Just to be clear, the probability weighted forecast isn't about yielding an accurate forecast number, it's about testing the business model against various scenarios to understand how it will react to those, both optimistic and pessimistic. From a methodology perspective, it's the exact opposite of trying to build a single accurate forecast. It's acknowledging that you aren't in a position to build a single highly confident forecast, so instead you build a set of different forecasts, and assign a probability to those, for example, I'm 30% confident in the pessimistic forecast, 60% confident in the baseline forecast, and 10% confident in the optimistic forecast. We then plug those in, and see how those impact the model. Then, you can start to test the model - ok - what happens if we push the pessimistic to 40% and baseline to 50%? Or, what if we increase the volume on the optimistic scenario. Or, you can start to look at it from another perspective, such as what are the minimum monthly sales volumes necessary to break-even? Or, at what point can I actually draw a salary, have enough cash to make a subsequent investment, what level of sales do I need to be able to afford a certain level of inventory build, etc.

If we are talking about control states only, then the wholesaler is not an issue. Generally, you would ship directly to the control state warehouse. kkbodine is correct that the rules vary. You are going to have to contact the purchasing department for each state and ask them what you need to do to get listed in their state. You can find information on line about the listing process by visiting the web sites for the individual states. For Idaho, for example, go to https://www.liquor.idaho.gov/product-listing.html. There you will find a blow by blow description of what you have to do. I did some work for a client a few years back and discovered that Idaho requires that you appoint an "Idaho Liquor Supplier Representative..," Don't know what that means? Neither did I. So I called them and asked. It is a nose and grindstone process. A couple of quick comments: Many states use a bailment system. In essence, that means you consign the spirits to the state warehouse and they do not pay you until they ship them to one of their stores or to a retail customer. Be prepared for that. At least two states that use the bailment system, Ohio and North Carolina, require that you get a federal basic permit as a wholesaler at their warehouse location. Others may to, I just don't know. The state is not going to promote the product for you and may require that you tell them what you are going to do to promote it. I think all 17 control states require some sort of code number. As kkbodine says, A number do use the National Association of Beverage Control States INABCA Code); some use their own. You have to make supplication for the NABCA number for each of your products through the NABCA. If you identify the states you'd like to which you would like to sell, you could contact distilleries in those states and ask, but I would call the state first, get its spiel, and then talk to people about how things work in practice.