Local Market Penetration
Posted 23 November 2010 - 11:03 PM
Posted 24 November 2010 - 09:56 AM
Posted 24 November 2010 - 11:08 AM
At the time, local distilleries would have amounted to 0%. There weren't any.
Posted 24 November 2010 - 12:50 PM
I agree with this. We looked at how many bottles it would take to break even and what we thought the market would bear.
Sales forecasting is always going to be like looking into a crystal ball
Posted 24 November 2010 - 03:16 PM
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Posted 24 November 2010 - 05:14 PM
I know the size of my local market, and have decent per-capita liquor consumption data. I'm simply wondering what percent of that consumption would be a realistic goal to capture. Is it realistic to aim to sell 1 in 50 of the cases bought locally?
Posted 25 November 2010 - 08:18 AM
For me, NY is my local market. They buy most of what I make, and by that I mean that some of their customers are out of state or they sell online to out of state customers. So in some sense 100% of my sales are "local". If by local I mean the 3 or 4 stores in the Western Catskills that carry my products, now we're talking a much smaller number.
So of it may depend on your product(s). Common products such as whiskey, gin etc may well be all consumed fairly locally. If you make a unique liqueur, you might need a broader sales area (regionally).
We can't answer these questions for you, and yes, there's quite a bit of uncertainty. But that's the nature of the business.
Posted 25 November 2010 - 10:50 AM
When I'm at the store choosing a micro brew, I'm disproportionately going to reach for the local brand because of a hometown loyalty. I'm simply trying quantify that local sales effect.
Posted 26 November 2010 - 07:32 AM
Definitely make up little shelf tags that say "Locally Made". Advertise locally made. Advertise Made in Our State. Otherwise, you're just another bottle on the shelf.
Posted 27 November 2010 - 09:30 PM
Posted 03 April 2012 - 05:57 PM
Besides that, how about a hypothetical example? Suppose Anytown Distillery is planning a new vodka distillery in Anytown, USA, population 100,000. According to the state liquor authorities, Anytown is a thirsty city and consumes 30,000 cases of vodka each year. What would be a reasonable goal for a number of cases that the distillery should aim to sell in its hometown annually?
Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:17 PM
As someone going through this right now, I would go and ask your local liquor guys. I went to all the big sellers and asked them how the other local distilleries (my market has five) were fairing at their pricepoints and what they thought the market would bare. I also, asked them about how I could position myself. Would I be able to make a model like tuthilltown work (selling 350ml bottles for $44.95) or my local competitors (who are selling around $37.50 a 750ml)? Every market is different and you can't get a reasonable guess from someone else's market. The real question you should ask is "What is my goal for this distillery?" Do you want to make $50k a year or $100K? How many people will you need to get that accomplished? How much material? etc and then calculate how much of the market at what price point you need to grab that. Set that percentage as what you will capture and then put forth a marketing plan which sees achieving that goal as a real possibility.
Posted 11 April 2012 - 07:05 PM
@Max Action, Are you still in startup planing stages? is this info 2 years later holding you back from starting? We did a lot of homework before hand too, preparing pays off. How close are you to getting off the ground?
Posted 13 April 2012 - 01:22 PM
I do have some ballpark ideas already, based on data I've been able to gather here and there, and making extrapolations based population sizes and consumption rates. But the more data the better...
Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:40 AM
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