Hi everyone.
We're in the midst of finalizing some of the final preparations for our distillery prior to making purchases and moving forward with our business plans. We've got 12-month cash flows, production plans, limited debt, adequate financing and several years' worth of P&L projections along with conservative budgeting for Murphy's law.
However, I just received a sales report from the NC ABC (the state where we will most likely initiate sales of our first product line), which I'm still trying to interpret. The report includes quantities of spirits sole over a 12-month period. The person at the ABC who provided it said the report is quantities of bottles, but I have a hard time believing it's bottles and not 9L cases, as some of the numbers for businesses I know sell only in NC are quite low (i.e., low single digits). If some businesses have only one product and they are selling only one bottle per month in the state, I don't see how they could remain in business.
With that in mind, we're planning for first year sales of around 1,000 to 1,200 9L cases. Is this figure a reasonable expectation, particularly if we're focused on distribution to a control state with plans for rapidly expanding to other states?
We have calls in to clarify this report, but are concerned about the reliability of the information. Does it seem feasible for big producers in the state to be selling only about 400 bottles (33 cases) of product on a monthly basis?
We're not yet at the point of no return. I'm trying to verify our thesis before we get to that point.
Thanks for your input.