Though Ukraine has gained well deserved admiration for its innovative and potent deployment of repurposed commercial and enterprise drones ­– as well as craft created exclusively for military use – its fighters may now be losing their aerial advantage as Russia shows its own capabilities with adapted UAVs.

https://dronedj.com/2023/11/10/observes-fear-russia-is-closing-ukraines-drone-advantage/

Türkiye has rapidly increased the export of military goods to the Russian Federation, - FT

Growing trade volumes have undermined US and European attempts to curb Moscow's ability to arm its armed forces.

Turkey's exports to Russia of goods vital to Russia's war machine have surged this year. That has heightened concerns among the United States and its allies that the country is acting as a conduit for sensitive goods from their own manufacturers. This is stated in the Financial Times material.

It is noted that the growth in trade volumes has negated attempts by the United States and Europe to contain Moscow’s ability to arm its armed forces, increasing tensions between Ankara and its NATO partners.

According to the publication, in a sign that containing this trade has become a priority in Washington, Brian Nelson, the US Treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will visit Istanbul and Ankara this week to discuss trade and financial activities that benefit Russia's efforts in the war against Ukraine.

This will be Nelson's second trip to Turkey this year and comes amid signs that some dual-use parts identified by the US and its allies as being of particular war value are being transported directly to Russia, even though they were designated as destined for the war. to be sent to another country,” the article says.

The authors say that in the first nine months of 2023, Turkey reported exporting $158 million worth of 45 categories of goods considered “high priority” by the United States to Russia and five former Soviet countries suspected of acting as intermediaries for Moscow. This is three times more than for the same period in 2022, when a full-scale war began in Ukraine.

This includes microchips, communications equipment and parts such as telescopic sights. They are subject to export controls by the US, EU, Japan and UK, aimed at preventing them from entering Russia.

“But they can be circumvented by companies that use intermediary structures to hide their final destinations,” the material says.

Wars take time: FT announced steps for Ukraine’s victory

Attempts by Russia and its henchmen to convince the world that the war in Ukraine has faded into the background due to Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip have nothing to do with reality. In long wars there is a lull, especially since the front line in Ukraine remains almost unchanged.

"How many times, since the Hamas attack on Israel, have I been chided for the fact that Ukraine has disappeared from the world's headlines - sometimes as if it were a conspiracy - before asking whether a deal with Russia is now inevitable? After a week in Ukraine, it's on my mind comes the third gloomy refrain: of course, Kiev is desperate that the Middle East is distracting the West. Well, the answer is no; just like the question about the deal. And as for the disappearance of Ukraine from TV screens, that’s what happens in Long wars have ebbs and flows, and in Ukraine so far, as on the Western Front in 1914-18, the front line remains virtually unchanged,” writes Alec Russell in a column for the Financial Times.

Wars take time. In the post-Cold War era, the West is having to relearn this lesson. Within weeks of the start of the 1991 Gulf War, the US-led coalition faced nervous questions about the risk of getting bogged down. This syndrome reappeared at the outbreak of the Kosovo war eight years later.

Now the same cautious assumptions are in the air, albeit about a larger conflict. A well-rehearsed argument goes like this: controversial policies in the West will lead to weakening support for Ukraine, not least because its counteroffensive is bogged down in the mud. And if American support wanes, as seems likely if Donald Trump is re-elected as US President, then Europe will bear the enormous burden of supporting Ukraine, not to mention financing victory.

All this can happen. But Ukraine is not interested in playing along with the pessimists - or, as they see it, the realists - in realizing this scenario: trading land for peace. The Kremlin, which is clearly waiting for the results of the US elections, is not interested in this either. As the foreign minister of a neutral state notes, perhaps many in the world would like the war to end, but “no one told both sides about it.”

Ukrainian ministers are frantically trying to rebuild the economy so as to maximize domestic arms production, while realizing that in autocracies such as Russia, this has always been easier to do in a short time. As they dream of EU membership, they know they will have to contend with an opaque business culture and corrupt courts.

But they also know all about long wars. Their war did not begin on February 24, 2022, as many outside Ukraine believe. It began in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. Therefore, the idea that Gaza's dominance on Western television has disoriented Ukrainians is untrue. When asked about this, they seem genuinely perplexed. In numerous conversations from Kyiv to Kharkov, the crisis in the Middle East was not mentioned even once.

For Kiev, all that matters is its own war: how to meet as many of its own needs as possible - building on its success in deploying the private sector to produce drones - while obtaining critical weapons from its allies. We are talking about F-16 aircraft to counter Russian air superiority, long-range missiles to push back support units so that in the event of a breakthrough the Ukrainians can advance, and air defense capabilities.

They are also pinning their hopes on the possibility of using the billions of euros assessed against frozen Russian assets to fund reconstruction efforts, which is crucial to boost morale and the return of millions of people who have fled to seek refuge abroad.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 27.11.23 were approximately:

Strong winds and icy roads are expected again today in Ukraine. Because of this, a storm warning has been issued.

According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, wind gusts of 17-22 m/s are expected in Ukraine on November 27. There is significant snow in the Kyiv, Kirovograd and Poltava regions. There is icy conditions on the country's roads.

In Ukraine, traffic is blocked on 14 roads, and settlements in 16 regions are without power.

This is discussed in the message of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In particular, the most difficult situation is in the north and south of the Odessa region. There the snow reaches one and a half meters. Rescuers, police, National Guardsmen, and border guards are involved in eliminating the consequences of the bad weather.

Near the village of Udobnoe, border guards evacuated 42 people from buses, including 10 children. With the help of a snowmobile on the Izmail-Reni highway, rescuers freed 6 people.

More than 500 vehicles were towed, including 14 buses and 12 emergency vehicles.

Assistance was provided to 1,624 people, including 93 children. Six people turned to doctors with signs of hypothermia.

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will vote on aid for Ukraine and Israel that President Joe Biden is asking for on December 4.

As Politico reports, Schumer's announcement puts pressure on senators to agree on border security as part of a bill that includes aid to Ukraine and Israel.

He said the border issue is now the "biggest obstacle" to providing funds to these two US allies. At the same time, Schumer called on Democrats to work more with Republicans to try to reach a deal.

There are now almost certainly 60 votes to provide tens of billions more in aid to Ukraine, but Republicans are refusing to vote for it without a border deal. Schumer's initiative for a Senate vote in early December provides a deadline for negotiations. Congress has already passed spending bills twice this fall without aid to Ukraine, and the situation will only get more complicated in the new year.

"Nothing would make autocrats like Putin or Xi Jinping happier now than for the United States to hesitate in supporting the Ukrainian people and their military. This is not just about Ukrainian or transatlantic security, it is also about American security," Schumer said.

There are heavy battles in the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to counterattack, constantly using artillery and dropping high-explosive bombs.

In the Netherlands, the right-wing populist party of Geert Wilders won the parliamentary elections. And such results are an indicator of the deep crisis of the European Union.

If previously high rates of populists and radicals were characteristic of Central and Eastern Europe, now we see a revival of populist parties and populist movements (not only of the far right, but also of the far left) in Western Europe. These elections have shown that it is possible for such forces to win simply in the core of the European Union. Moreover, this is not just a victory, but a victory under completely clear anti-European slogans.

     These are metastases of a pan-European political crisis, which will allow such populists to win in more and more states

The growing popularity in Germany of the “Alternative for Germany” party (a populist party which, in particular, in court, challenged official Berlin’s supply of weapons to Ukraine - UNIAN), as well as the party of Sarah Vanegkecht, which is positioned as a competitor to the “alternative”... or the election victory of the party of former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who lobbied for the appointment as Minister of Environment of Rudolf Gulyak, who advocates Slovakia’s exit from the EU... These are metastases of a pan-European political crisis, which will allow such populists to win in more and more states.

The fact is that at a time when there are major conflicts in the world, on almost every continent, when we are still in a situation of hyperinflation, which can turn into stagflation (a state of the economy that involves its fall along with rising prices), when we just started to move away from the coronavirus, when people are naturally angry and dissatisfied, people appear with very passionate, but at the same time primitive slogans. They say: “We know who is to blame, and we will change everything!”

And, unfortunately, in every democracy there can be a significant part of the population that will support such ideas. People are tired of crises, they want to solve them simply, and populists offer them this way.

What is populism anyway? It includes simple solutions to complex issues. But for a populist several things are important. He needs someone to blame for the problem, he needs an enemy to fight, and he needs a crisis to overcome. And now it all comes together.

     The Europeans simply did not expect that such narratives could gain quite a lot of support

For example, European institutions have always promised that they will maintain stability, maintain a normal level of income for their citizens, but here, it turns out, they are not able to cope with this, because the problem is global. Therefore, now is the moment when every European democracy has its own conventional Orban, Fico or Alternative for Germany, who “know” exactly who is to blame and what to do.

This has always been the case in political history. Europeans simply did not expect that such narratives could gain sufficiently large support, and in general victory in the most democratic and open European societies.

“The loss of open Europe”: in the Netherlands they voted for radicals, what to expect for Ukraine .
 

Ultra right turn. Another European country voted for radical populists. In the Dutch elections, following the Slovak ones, the party won, one of whose election promises was to stop aid to Ukraine. Now the state, which has been one of the most loyal allies, can completely change course. The election results have already been dubbed “the loss of open Europe” in the Netherlands.

Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count

There may not be much the West either can or will do to help Ukraine

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/23/russia-is-starting-to-make-its-superiority-in-electronic-warfare-count

...

Ukraine discovered in March that its Excalibur GPS-guided shells suddenly started going off-target, thanks to Russian jamming. Something similar started happening to the JDAM-ER guided bombs that America had supplied to the Ukrainian air force, while Ukraine’s HIMARS-launched GMLRS long-range rockets also started missing their targets. In some areas, a majority of GMLRS rounds now go astray.

Even more worrying has been the increasing ability of Russian EW to counter the multitudes of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Ukraine has been using for everything from battlefield reconnaissance and communications to exploding on impact against targets such as tanks or command nodes.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky said what strength the Russian Federation must feel in order to pay for aggression against Ukraine.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, Zelensky said this at a joint press conference with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics in Kyiv. Zelensky said Ukraine is grateful to Latvia for its continued support of sanctions against Russia. “It is important that at the level of each specific country and at the level of all of Europe, the necessary work is carried out to block Russian schemes for circumventing sanctions,” Zelensky noted.

The president also added that important work has begun in Europe and other jurisdictions on the fair use of frozen Russian assets.

“We are grateful to all our partners who are looking for specific legal solutions to ensure that the aggressor’s assets are sent to those who suffered from aggression,” the president noted.

"Modern Russia does not believe in anything other than money and force. Therefore, the aggressor must feel our strength on the battlefield. The strength of the political unity of Europe. The strength of sanctions packages, and the aggressor must pay the most for his aggression. Pay with the assets of those individuals who one way or another connected with a terrorist state. These funds must work for the restoration of Ukraine after hostilities," Zelensky emphasized.

After the Russian night attack by suicide bombers in Kyiv, 77 residential buildings and 120 institutions were left without electricity. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine reports this.

“On the morning of November 25, during a large-scale drone attack in the capital, the air line was cut off. As a result, 77 residential buildings and 120 institutions in the central part of the city were left without power,” the report says.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevičs was in Kyiv during the massive attack by the “shaheds” on the night of November 25.

As noted by the Latvian leader on the social network X, at night he went down to cover when the Russians attacked the Ukrainian capital with a record number of drones.

“November 25, 05:10 am, Kyiv,” wrote Rinkevichs, posting a photo from a hiding place.

"There is a possible shortage of imported products, starting with salt," said Deputy Minister of Agricultural Policy Taras Vysotskyi

First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi told UNIAN which products are at risk of shortage due to the border blockade, how Ukraine solves problems with grain export, and what transformations await our agricultural industry.

How will the blocking of the border by Polish carriers and the unstable operation of the Slovak border affect Ukraine's food security? Which groups of goods that we import may become scarce and become more expensive?

We understand that the waterway is not fully operational yet because there are military risks there. Previously, we mainly imported products in containers through Odessa, now it all went by road transport. And there is no alternative. Therefore, shortages may arise, starting with salt, because, unfortunately, Ukrainian production is under temporary occupation. As well as other products that are not grown in our country. For example, citrus fruits, bananas. Also seafood, because we currently do not have access to the sea to fully catch them. It's not necessarily something "luxurious" - it's even ordinary hake and other frozen fish.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 25.11.23 were approximately:

On the night of November 25, 2023, the enemy launched a record number of "Shahed" type UAVs over Ukraine.
A total of 75 "shakhed" launches were recorded from two directions - Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation and the district of the Kursk region. - Russian Federation The main direction of the attack is the city of Kyiv.
Anti-aircraft defense worked in at least six regions of Ukraine: Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad regions.
Anti-aircraft missile forces, tactical aviation, mobile fire groups, and electronic warfare units are involved in repelling an air attack.
💥 As a result of an anti-aircraft battle this night, 71 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs were destroyed by the forces and means of the Air Force, in cooperation with the Air Defense Forces of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The vast majority is in Kyiv region!
A Kh-59 guided air missile was also destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk region.

During the last massive drone attack on Ukraine, about 40% of "Shaheed" were destroyed by mobile fire groups

Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced this on the air of the telethon.

"This time, I want to thank the mobile fire groups. This is the echelon tasked with shooting down UAVs in order to reduce the costs of anti-aircraft guided missiles. Today, the percentage of shooting down by mobile fire groups has reached 40," Ignat said.

Tonight, November 25, the occupiers staged another drone attack on Kyiv. The head of the Kyiv city military administration, Mikhail Shamanov, announced on the telethon that more than 40 air targets had been destroyed by air defense forces.

“There is only preliminary operational information, this is the fourth attack by enemy UAVs on Kiev in a month. This drone attack was the most massive since the beginning of a full-scale invasion. More than four dozen air targets were hit by air defense forces and means,” Shamanov said.

According to him, the enemy used loitering bombs. There were several waves of launches that came from different directions.

“This night, the enemy launched a record number of attack UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type across Ukraine. The main direction of the attack was Kyiv,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces added.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 23.11.23 were approximately:

"I also met with brave Ukrainian troops who have just returned from the front line. And my message to them was simple: we will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary. We are focused on supporting Ukraine as it continues to battle the winter and protect its critical infrastructure. And through this extraordinary group of approximately 50 countries, we are reminding the world of our shared commitment to support Ukraine today – and for the long term,” emphasized US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in the opening remarks at the 17th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine on November 22, 2023.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Celeste Wallander held the seventeenth meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine with world leaders - ministers and ministers of defense and chiefs of defense agencies from more than 50 countries around the world in an online format at the Pentagon, Washington, DC, on November 22, 2023, during which they discussed Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and continued close coordination to provide the Ukrainian people with the means necessary to protection of its sovereign territory.
Since my last visit to Kyiv in April 2022, they [Ukrainian troops] continued to courageously fight against Russian aggression. Ukraine has returned 50 percent of the territory captured since February 2022. And it was touching to once again see with my own eyes the resilience of the Ukrainian people, who stand firm in the face of ongoing attacks.
For more than 20 months, the people of Ukraine demonstrated to the world the power of a free people to resist Putin's aggression.
And Ukraine's struggle for freedom is important for all of us. As President Biden said, when tyrants don't pay for their aggression, they continue to threaten the world.
None of us wants to live in a world where scoundrels like Putin can invade their peaceful neighbors with impunity. And we refuse to let the shape of global security be dictated by autocrats who rely on repression by force at home and by coercion abroad.
We have gathered today because we share a vision of a world that is free, open, prosperous and secure. That is why I am proud that this historic Contact Group has committed more than $80 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the Kremlin began its unjustified invasion.
And I am proud of your unwavering commitment. Our unity sends a clear signal to Putin that he will not be able to defeat us or defeat us in a contest of wills.
As Putin continues his tragic, unnecessary war, he has been forced to look to Iran and North Korea for support. Both Ukraine and Israel face relentless enemies who seek to destroy them.
This is a moment of global challenge. But make no mistake. The United States is perfectly capable of continuing our strong support for Ukraine even as we support Israel in its hour of need.
Therefore, as Ukraine faces another winter of war, I call on this group to provide Ukraine with air defenses to protect its people.

The White House President Joe Biden U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) The Joint Staff

The Ukrainian operator of the kamikaze drone hit the head of the Russian occupier, trying to avoid the attack.

shocking video.

...war becomes what we were shown in science fiction films...

https://storage2.censor.net/video/3/231123_str.mp4

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 22.11.23 were approximately:

The Russian Federation made prisoners the main source of replenishment for its losses on the battlefield. This was announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyi based on the results of the daily selector.

"Daily reports on the arrival of ammunition, equipment, equipment, distribution between brigades. Summary of the situation on the battlefield. Difficult weather, difficult defense in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Donetsk and Avdiiv directions. Offensive actions in the south," the head of state noted.

Also, according to him, during the meeting, they heard intelligence information about some international events, as well as enemy plans.

"At this stage, the Russian army has made convicts the main source of replenishment of losses on the battlefield," Zelenskyy emphasized.

In addition, he received reports on the liquidation of the consequences of shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kherson, Beryslav, and Nikopol.

"In Nikopol, in particular, the enemy targeted the water supply network. Services are working to restore water supply to people. My Office is keeping this under control. The Black Sea "grain corridor" is showing good results. The last few days have been record-breaking in terms of the volume of transported cargo," the president noted.

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather conditions. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2023

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 21.11.23 were approximately: